Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
